Pakistan’s Political Crossroads in Mid-2025  

By [ M. Amir ], Senior Analyst  



As Pakistan approaches mid-2025, its political landscape is unusually unstable, marked by a mix of security issues, economic troubles, institutional changes, and shifting governance. This article looks at the main factors driving the current situation, including civil-military relations, security threats, economic challenges, and domestic politics, while also examining Pakistan’s changing foreign policy and outlook as elections approach.  


1. Civil-Military Power Dynamics  

Pakistan’s political balance remains distorted by the military's strong influence, particularly under Army Chief General Asim Munir. Since assuming power in 2022, Munir has developed a hardline reputation and gained a greater impact on foreign and security policy, positioning himself as more assertive than his predecessor.  


The recent military responses following the April-May conflict with India highlight this influence. After India conducted airstrikes in reaction to a terrorist attack in Kashmir, Pakistan acted under Munir’s command, demonstrating the military's power to shape national policy. A ceasefire in May resonated with the public, leading to a national day of commemoration on May 10 that briefly boosted support for the military.  


However, many observers argue that this rise in support does not reflect broader political unity. The civilian government appears weak in crucial areas, especially finance and governance, and continues to work alongside rather than oppose the military’s dominance.  


2. Security Environment: Terror, Drones, and Insurgency  

Security remains a significant weakness. In June 2025, Pakistan experienced over 78 militant attacks, leading to 100 deaths and 189 injuries. Although this marked a decrease from prior months, the numbers are still alarmingly high. Most incidents occurred in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, spurred by the resurgence of the TTP (Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan) and Baloch separatists.  


A troubling trend is the use of commercially available drones modified to deliver explosives, targeting security forces in areas like Bannu. These tactics complicate countermeasures because local police lack adequate defenses. Violence is not confined to the northwest; incidents like the bus shooting in Balochistan on July 16 demonstrate ongoing insurgency and unrest.  


While military actions have successfully neutralized hundreds of militants, with 688 killed in early 2025 alone, the long-term success of these operations relies on political solutions and stronger governance from civilians.  


3. Economic Turbulence and Fiscal Crises  

Pakistan’s economy is edging toward crisis. With external debt repayments exceeding USD 23 billion due in 2025-26, nearly half the federal budget goes to service this debt. Although the IMF-backed stabilization package of USD 7 billion helped improve certain economic indicators, it came with austerity measures, tax increases, and subsidy cuts.  


The Uraan Pakistan economic transformation plan, launched at the end of 2024, seeks to break this cycle with goals like doubling exports by 2029 and promoting a digital economy. While there is initial optimism, significant challenges remain, including a narrow tax base, low productivity, and heavy reliance on external borrowing.  


Recent actions, such as renegotiating Chinese loans and a modest GDP growth of 2.68 percent with inflation easing to 4.7 percent, provide slight relief. However, the looming deadline for USD 20 billion in debt due by mid-2026 and ongoing fiscal weaknesses are serious issues.  


4. Domestic Governance: Reform and Repression  

Politically, Pakistan is caught between superficial reforms and a slide toward authoritarianism. The 26th Constitutional Amendment, passed in late 2024, changes judicial appointments to boost parliamentary control while reducing judicial independence. At the same time, extending the terms of military leaders suggests deeper institutional consolidation.  


Civil liberties are under pressure. Increased throttling of the internet and redirection of social media, especially the crackdown on platforms like X, indicate a growing intolerance for dissent and digital organizing. New sedition and defamation laws, along with the enforcement of blasphemy statutes, have largely targeted critics and minority communities.  


Nonetheless, grassroots activism continues. In Sindh, the Babarloi sit-in in April against controversial canal projects led by local lawyers resulted in federal concessions, highlighting effective civil resistance. In Balochistan, ongoing protests since March over enforced disappearances and human rights abuses show regional assertiveness, although they reflect unresolved ethnic and governance issues.  


However, corruption scandals, like the Rs 40 billion Kohistan embezzlement in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, reveal deep cracks in accountability systems.  


5. Political Parties and Election Outlook  

The 2024 general election resulted in a fragmented but united ruling coalition of PML-N, PPP, MQM-P, and others, under Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Deputy PM Ishaq Dar, with a strong two-thirds majority in the legislature. Despite claims of rigging and the disarray of PTI after Imran Khan, civil opposition remains.  


The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) faces internal strife, legal challenges, and bans on certain symbols from the Supreme Court. Imran Khan’s attempts to rejuvenate the party have had mixed outcomes. Meanwhile, Reham Khan, Imran Khan's former wife, launched the Pakistan Republic Party in July, promising a reform-oriented alternative.  


Looking ahead, Pakistan is preparing for local elections and the next general cycle. The interactions between the coalition, military, and an unclear judiciary will shape the electoral climate. Civil society and judicial actors face increasing constraints, limiting political inclusiveness and reinforcing centralized control.  


6. Foreign Policy: Balancing Great Power Pressures  

On the international front, Pakistan’s foreign policy carefully navigates relationships with the US, China, regional rivals, and Gulf states.  


United States: 

Counterterror cooperation remains a fundamental aspect, highlighted by the arrests of ISIS-K cells in early 2025. However, rising tensions, like Trump's outreach to Army Chief Munir and controversial views on the TRF terror group, complicate US-India-Pakistan diplomacy.  


China: 

Projects like CPEC and Gwadar port reinforce a strategic partnership, with China facilitating debt rollovers. However, security challenges in Balochistan raise doubts about the viability of these projects.  


India:

 Despite the ceasefire, relations are still shaky. Mutual distrust, skirmishes, and geopolitical maneuvers linger, especially regarding Kashmir.  


Gulf States: 

Financial backing from Saudi Arabia and the UAE serves as a vital cushion amid Western uncertainties.  


Afghanistan & Iran:

 Pakistan aligns with Iran at forums like the OIC, while the survival of Afghan militants along the porous border adds to security concerns.  


Outlook: Balancing Crisis and Opportunity  

Pakistan is at a critical moment. The combination of political, economic, and security factors creates a delicate balance: civil authority undermines democracy with military support, economic fragility threatens collapse, and security risks linger despite counterinsurgency successes.  


                                                              Yet, emerging citizen-led protests—from Sindh canal sit-ins to demands for Baloch rights—show signs of resilience that could shift power dynamics. Additionally, if reform initiatives like judicial appointments, economic planning (Uraan Pakistan), and global partnerships are implemented effectively, they could stabilize and aid recovery.  


                                                               The following months will test whether Pakistan can overcome crisis-driven reactions and put governance reforms in place. A national political dialogue addressing the PTI's status, judicial independence, regional rights, and civil liberties could mark a turning point. Without it, the military-backed status quo is likely to continue.  


                                                               Election politics will serve as a crucial measure. If the coalition achieves economic stability without suppressing civic freedoms—and if opposition voices find space in a fair political process—Pakistan may maintain a fragile but functional stability. However, if state repression grows, economic stress escalates, or security deteriorates, the likelihood of widespread unrest will increase, raising serious questions about the country's future direction.  


                                                               In 2025, Pakistan’s political landscape features not just one crisis, but overlapping divides: civil-military competition, militant resurgences, the threat of economic collapse, and fractured politics. Yet there is potential for change: strong leadership, inclusive reforms, and a resilient civil society could guide the nation toward a more stable, prosperous, and democratic future.